S&P CNX Nifty for the week 2nd January 2012 to 6th January 2012.

If Nifty trades below the 4620 mark on good volumes and for longer time in the coming sessions, then the immediate support is at 4577. If the 4577 mark is breached, then fresh supply may emerge leading to deeper losses with Nifty touching 4447 levels and then 4295. However if it trades above the 4660 mark for longer duration, short covering may lead it up to 4725 mark.Traders with medium term horizon are advised to do staggered buying in key index stocks  at deep negotiations. Please do not rush to buy at available rates.

USD-INR technicals for 28 December 2011.

The USD-INR has turned weak once again but 53.5779 should act as a strong support beyond which fresh shorts will be initiated leading to new all time lows on the downward journey . The immediate resistance is at 52.96 and then at 52.7188. The outlook on currency continues to be weak.

S&P CNX Nifty for 28th December 2011.

Nifty may see some profit booking and weakness if it trades below the 4730 mark on good volumes and for longer time. Immediate supports are at at 4675 and 4620. However if it trades above the 4760 mark for longer duration, a fresh spike may lead it upto 4807 mark which is a strong resistance- longs may see unwinding at this point. If 4807 is conquered then 4865 will act as a resistance and then to 4895.

S&P CNX Nifty for 27th December 2011.

The market was roaring today albeit on thin volumes. If the Nifty sustains above the 4775 mark on 27th December conclusively, fresh trades may be initiated with 4710 as strict stop loss. However 4865 will act as a resistance, which if conquered will lead Nifty to 4895. On the flip side however, consistent trades below the 4710 mark will see nifty at 4675 and 4620.

USD-INR technicals for the week 26 December 2011 to 30 December 2011.

If the USD-INR remains above the 52.95 mark, it will be weak with immediate support at 53.57 but if it breaches the 53.57 mark, new all time lows are expected as the downward journey may continue. The immediate resistance is at 52.31 and then at 50.73. Fresh longs may be initiated only when it will trade  below 48.60 conclusively, otherwise the outlook on currency continues to be weak.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 26th December 2011 to 30th December 2011.

 If the nifty  trades conclusively above 4738 mark it may see a further up move upto 4800 and then 4920. Immediate support is at 4709.  However, if the 4690 level gets breached on the downside then the immediate support exists at 4610. Fresh supply may emerge below 4610.

USD-INR technicals for 23 December 2011.

Above the 52.90 mark the USD-INR will continue to be weak. However it will be strong once it trades below the 52.33 mark conclusively.

S&P CNX Nifty for 23rd December 2011.

Market closed on a bullish note yesterday but only if the Nifty sustains above the 4750 mark conclusively, can it rally up to 4880. 4690 should act as a support for further up move. However nifty will turn weak below 4610.

S&P CNX Nifty for 22nd December 2011.

If the Nifty sustains above the 4750 mark conclusively, it can rally up to 4880. However, if it fails to hold above the 4595 mark, we may see further losses.

USD-INR technicals for 22 December 2011.

The USD-INR closed yesterday on a bullish note but it will be strong only once it trades below 52.31 mark. Immediate resistance will be at 52.08 and then 50.73.

USD-INR technicals for 20 December 2011.

As long as the USD-INR is above the 52.31 mark, the Indian currency will continue to be weak. The immediate support is at 53.25 and then at 53.65. If 53,65 level is breached then the currency may see new lows.

S&P CNX Nifty for 20th December 2011.

If the Nifty does not sustain above the 4595 mark tomorrow then the immediate support is at 4577. If the 4577 mark is breached, then fresh supply may emerge leading to deeper losses with Nifty touching 4447 levels and then 4295. Deep negotiations are advised for mid term investors in key index stocks as some hedge fund seems to be resorting to portfolio seling. Please do not rush into buying at available rates.

USD-INR technicals for the week 19 December 2011 to 23 December 2011.

As long as the USD-INR remains above the 52.86 mark, it will be weak but once it breaches the 53.57 mark, new all time lows are expected as the downward journey may continue. However below the 52.31 mark it may test 50.73. Fresh longs may be initiated only when it will trade  below 48.60 conclusively, otherwise the outlook on currency is weak.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 19th December 2011 to 23rd December 2011.

Nifty ended last week on a subdued note at 4651.6 after supply emerged in key index stocks during the latter half of Friday session. If the nifty does not trade conclusively above 4740 levels the supply may increase leading into further carnage and mayhem.  If the 4580 level gets breached on the downside then the immediate support exists at 4447 and then at 4295. Tough bargains in key index stocks is advised for mid term investors. However a technical bounce cannot be ruled out in which case if the market holds above 4740, a bout of short covering may take it to 4800 and then up to 4920.

Hard landing in China?

The credit bubble in China seems to blow up as the new home prices fell in Beijing by 35% in just a month. In August the construction firms reported $50 billion dollar worth of unsold inventories. In Shanghai too the prices have fallen by 25% this month.In the inland city of Changsa the property sales have gone down by 70%. The prices have dropped 70% in Ordos in inner Mongolia.

INR hits a new low.

A scramble for dollars saw the rupee slump to an all-time low of 53.35 to the dollar today. The interest rate was raised 13 times in the last 20 months, steepest hike in the whole world, to control inflation which has been above 9% throughout the year. Given the way policy makers are behaving and the large current account and fiscal deficits, India seems to be heading for the worst  financial crisis in decades. Sharp devaluation, as sharp as that of 1991, seems to become a reality soon.

The Eurozone crisis.

The ECB and Germany are both bent on austerity measures where as the root of the crisis lies in the balance of payments crisis in the Eurozone. No matter what formula the two may workout the financial crisis will only worsen till the ECB and Germany cast aside their proclivity towards austerity drives and recognise and address the balance of payments crisis. Hope Germany wakes up and casts aside it's moralizing dictum before it's too late.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 12th December 2011 to 16th December 2011.

Nifty ended the week on a bearish note. However, if the nifty trades above the 4935 mark in the opening trades, a technical bounce back may see it go up to 5000 which if conclusively conquered may see another bout of short covering taking it to 5109 and beyond. However, on the downside if 4814 is breached conclusively then all short term longs may be exited. The support thereafter lies at 4756 and then at 4675.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 5th December 2011 to 9th December 2011.

                      The market closed on a  bullish note at 5050.15 last week. If the Nifty trades consistently above the 5110 mark with good volumes, a short term uptrend can not be ruled out in the immediate term which may take it to 5170 and then to 5296 levels. Support lies at 4900. Traders are advised to trade long with strict stop loss at 4800. Profits may be booked partially above 5100 levels. It may be kept in mind that next week is a truncated week on account of holiday on 6th December2011.     

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 28 November 2011 to 2 December 2011.

The market closed last week on a very bearish note at 4710.05. If the market fails to trade above the 4750 mark in the opening moves, then the market will continue to be weak and continued trading  below 4690 mark will signify further weakness which might take it to 4515 levels and even down to 4432 levels. However, if 4432 too is broken then an all out carnage may take it to 3980.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 21 November 2011 to 25 November 2011.

4843 continues to be the crucial support for S&PCNX Nifty and if broken conclusively next week, the market may see further erosion down to 4720 and then 4538. These are excellent times for medium time investors to go for staggered accumulation at best possible bargains. Bouts of discount sales will keep on coming up as hedge funds and some banks and nations go burst.

Ideas for you.

If you are not a compulsive investor, try investing in metals and top notch banks, for these are the ones that drive the economy and therefore stock markets. Other sectors follow. How long the wait`s gonna be, no one knows. But these are the ones that`ll lead once the players think the risk is neutralized. If you are not a compulsive investor, try bidding at the best possible bargains for these are the times.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 31 October 2011 to 4 November 2011.

The Nifty closed on a very strong bullish note. If the Nifty trades above the 5375 mark for longer period with good volume the bull run may continue and if it dips below the 5345 mark a bout of profit taking may occur. However if it remains above 5327 mark on the weekly basis, a short term uptrend taking it all the way up to 5650 or 5700 cannot be ruled out.  

Watch!!

http://youtu.be/olIt-mlFXLE

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 17 October 2011 to 21 October 2011.

The Nifty continues to be in a bullish mode and traders are advised to hold on to their long positions with strict stop loss at 5085 levels. The market can go up to 5235 levels and if this  level is conquered conclusively with good volumes, it may go up to 5295 and then 5325. However, profits on longs may be booked partially around 5225 levels. On the downside if 5085 gets broken, nifty might go back to 5002, 4969 and then 4884 levels below which fresh supply will emerge. Investors are advised to watch Coal India Ltd., Sterlite Industries and SAIL as medium term bets and to bid at significantly lower levels then the current rates for portfolio selling seems to continue in these counters.

Nifty 10th October 2011 to 14th October 2011

        The Nifty closed last week on an optimistic note at 4888. The immediate support is at 4802 and fresh supply will emerge only if this level gets broken. On the upside the Nifty will test the 5025 level which if conquered conclusively will see another bout of short covering rally which may push it upto 5295 - 5325 level. Traders are advised to trade long with strict stop loss around 4800 levels. Investors may continue accumulating in key index stocks at  significantly lower bids and tough bargains.

TheRamakantPande: S&P CNX Nifty for the week 3 October 2011 to 7 O...

TheRamakantPande: S&P CNX Nifty for the week 3 October 2011 to 7 O...: Nifty ended Friday on a weak note. If 4860 level gets broken then it may test the support of 4720 and go down further. However a sustained t...

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 3 October 2011 to 7 October 2011.

Nifty ended Friday on a weak note. If 4860 level gets broken then it may test the support of 4720 and go down further. However a sustained trade above 4990 levels it can go up to 5211. Coal India Ltd. can be considered for bottom bargaining below the 290 levels in a staggered way for a long term investment.

For how long will the euro zone survive!

The German Parliament approved the expansion of the bailout fund for heavily indebted European countries today. Euro on crutches!!!??????

S & P CNX Nifty for the week 26 September 2011 to 30 September 2011.

The Nifty closed last week at just the tipping point. From here the direction of trend will depend on the direction in which high volumes will be traded in a sustained way. Below 4820 levels the markets are likely to test the earlier low of 4720 and  if 4720 is breached then it can go down to 4610 and 4405 in the wake of fresh supply. However, above 4910 it can go up to 5035. Staggered bottom fishing is recommended in key index stocks for a medium term.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 19 September 2011 to 23 September 2011.

If the Nifty crosses the 5125 mark conclusively with high volumes, it can go upto the 5325 levels. However, if it dips below 5000 mark, it can touch 4875 levels below which fresh supply may resume. 

Another Financial crisis within a few days time!!!

After Greece, Spain and Italy are in trouble. How long will it take the European leaders to realise that unlike Greece which had a huge budget deficit, Spain and Italy have a budget surplus. If the ECB doesn't do something about cutting interest rates and lending freely, the European crisis in particular and another full blown financial crisis  the whole world over will be there in a matter of days.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 12 September 2011 to 16 September 2011.

If the nifty breaks the 5025 mark, it can go down to 4890 mark. On the upside, bulls will return only after it trades conclusively above the 5125 levels. How ever the market continues to be pessimistic and this pessimism may be utilized for staggered bottom fishing in key index stocks.

S&P CNX Nifty 24th August 2011 onwards !!

If the Nifty crosses the 5005 mark conclusively in the immediate term, short covering may take it upto 5200 levels. However the overall trend continues to be bearish. Short term up trend will be mostly utilised to exit. Long term investors are advised to be patient. The supply is not over as the technicals of key index stocks suggest that some funds are resorting to portfolio selling in a slow and continued manner.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 8 August 2011 to 12 August 2011.

The Nifty is currently in a bear territory and only if it trades above 5260, it might at best go to 5411 levels. Staggered buying in key index stocks may be resorted to when the momentum decreases in the short side. the only support seems to be around 5075 mark, but that too is weak.

Short covering seen world over.

The Democratic and Republican leaders of the Senate announced Sunday night that they had reached a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling and avert a default. A short covering rally might flare up in the world stock markets worldwide.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 1st August 2011 to 5 th August 2011.

The overall trend for the short term is bearish. If the 5438 support is breached on closing basis with good volumes, a short term severe sell off may ensue and buying for long term in key heavyweights is suggested only once the momentum on the downside subsides. Market will be strong only if it starts trading above the 5610 mark conclusively.

Thank you United States of America for spelling global doom!!

Billions of dollars blown into bailing out the top Banks of US and the country’s gross domestic product, grew at a meagre annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter, after having grown at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the first quarter between January and June. To make matters worse, total loss of economic output in the 2007-2009 recession was revised to 5.1% from a previous estimate of 4.1%. The data comes at a time when the White House and Congress are locked in a battle over how to raise the debt ceiling to allow the government to borrow more money. If they cannot agree, the government will soon run out of money, leaving it unable to pay items such as social security payments, military pay and interest payments.
So much for all the quantitative easing and so much for not taking over the banks, cleaning them and handing over back to the market force
...and third world is busy fighting inflation!!! Raising rates killing domestic businesses dependent on domestic consumption- thanks to unaccountability of US government to the globalization and to the globe.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 25 July 2011 to 29 July 2011.

If the benchmark index trades above 5650 mark with convincing volumes and for longer time, it can go upto 5730 mark. However the volumes have died down and moreover the July settlement is on 28th. So caution is advised with a stop loss around 5570 levels. The support at 5400 must hold for the week.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 18 July 2011 to 22 July 2011.

For the next week if the benchmark index breaches the 5555 mark on the downside, a short term bearish trend will follow, whereas if it manages to hold above the 5648 mark with good volumes on a closing basis, a fresh upside will be seen. Chances of a short term upside cannot be ruled out in the immediate term if the Nifty trades above the 5595 mark in the opening few hours of trade next week.

Nifty 11th July to 15th July 2011

Last week the S&P CNX Nifty closed at the critical level of 5660.65 which technically indicates a 50-50 chance of breaking even or breaking down. The uptrend will resume if the index manages to stay conclusively above the 5742 mark with good volumes. On the downside, if it breaches the 5540 mark a short term bearish trend will resume. Caution is advised at this stage.

Nifty 4th July to 8th July 2011

As long as the Nifty holds above the 5590 mark, it is believed to climb northwards steadily with bouts of profit booking. If it crosses the 5743 mark conclusively with good volumes a new 52 week high cannot be ruled out, although 5775 will act as a strong resistance. However, in the worst case scenario 5472 should act as a strong support. The dips may be utilized to accumulate key index stocks for a short term.

Nifty 27th June to 1st July 2011

All the technical charts are suggesting an up move in Nifty. if Nifty crosses 5550 levels in the first few trading sessions, it can go upto 5750 levels. 5760 continues to be a stiff resistance. However, on the downside, 5285 will act as a key support. Bottom fishing is advised.

Nifty 20th June to 24th June 2011

If the Nifty breaches 5305 levels, then the market is due for another downside. Otherwise a short upside spurt upto 5460 levels is expected after the market touches the 5305 support. However if 5460 level is broken then the market may rally upto 5640 levels. Staggered bottom fishing is advised in key stocks.

Nifty 13th June to 17th June.

The market continues to be in bear grip although a major down-slide from these levels doesn't seem likely. Short term traders of Nifty F&O on short side might get caught for a sudden upside movement cannot be ruled out. However for medium term investors, bottom fishing by way of staggered buying is advised. 5375 may act as a strong support. However if 5525 level is overcome on Monday in opening trades with good volumes, Nifty may go upto 5625 levels. But a downtick seems more likely before the upmove.

Nifty 30th May to 3rd June

The smart up move from 5328 to 5485 is still not convincing. The market is not out of the woods though a short term bottom could be in place if 5380 holds.  However from a sell on rally the market has turned to buy on dips and bottom fishing.

Nifty 22nd May to 27th May

Although the market saw a comeback rally on Friday last but nifty is still in the grips of the bears. This being the week of expiry of the May series, upside spurts cannot be ruled out. Still it is a sell on rally market and best suited for bargain hunting for medium turn.

Conspiracy theory, this!

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was arrested in New York on Saturday (early morning Sunday in India) for allegedly sodomising a Manhattan hotel maid. The trouble began when a housekeeper entered his room at the Sofitel on west 44th street. It is alleged that he emerged from the bathroom naked and grabbed her. The timing of the arrest is sensitive especially when the I.M.F.'s busy saving Greece from default. Some believe that this is a set up.

Nifty 16 May 2011 to 20 May 2011.

The 5544.75 mark where it closed last week is a critical point and therefore totally inconclusive although the markets staged a smart comeback on Friday the 13th just like it did on Friday the 6th. However unless  the  Nifty stays conclusively above the 5675 mark on Monday with good volumes, it still is a sell on rally. Fresh buying will emerge only above the 5775 mark. The 5340 mark must act as a support.

Nifty 9th May to 13th May

Although the market staged a smart recovery on Friday but it is still in the grip of bears. Unless the Nifty manages to stay above  the 5680 levels with good volumes in the opening three four hours of trade and closes above 5700 mark, it is a sell on rally market. However above the 5755 levels fresh buying may emerge.

Remain invested in low duration funds!!

 RBI governor's tone was rather hawkish; the priority being to rein in headline inflation  at the cost of lower growth going forward, as opposed to the earlier stance of supporting growth while containing inflationary pressures. The bond prices will probably remain range-bound with a declining bias in the near-term as market participants may await a revision in the fuel prices and its impact on headline inflation. The yield curve will flatten more in the near-term as the 50 basis-point hike will gradually push short-term rates higher. 3M bank CD yields will gradually trend towards 9.50-9.75% pa from their current levels of 9% pa. 12M bank CD yields may touch 10% pa in the near-term. Banks will probably raise both deposit rates as well as lending rates in a gradual manner. It is advised to remain invested in low duration funds at the moment and wait for money market rates to peak out in the next three to six months before seeking to extend the duration of investments.

RBI announcements in its Annual Monetary Policy Review.

The RBI has made the following announcements in its Annual Monetary Policy Review yesterday:
-Repo Rate is increased by 50 basis points to 7.25% with immediate effect.
-Reverse Repo Rate is increased by 50 basis points to 6.25% with immediate effect.
-In line with the Deepak Mohanty Committee’s recommendations, the RBI has introduced a new Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) for banks to borrow up to 1% of their NDTL at 100 basis points over the new Repo Rate. The banks who do not have -surplus SLR can now borrow over-night money from the RBI at 8.25% pa..
-Savings Rate has been hiked from 3.5% pa to 4% pa.
-Both CRR and Bank Rate has been left unchanged at 6%.

Nifty 2nd May 2011 to 6th May 2011

 Throughout the week Nifty was in a bearish mode. The closing of last week was on dangerous ground in that from here it can go anywhere. Unless it manages to stay well above the 5790 mark with good volumes on the opening trade next weeks, it can slide down to 5575 levels and if that support is taken away then it can test 5450. However if it stays above 5870 a short term bullish trend can not be ruled out. Ohterwise it's a sell on rally market.

Nifty 18.4.11 to 21.4.11

The Nifty is on a weak foot but as the week gone by was truncated, the trend remains inconclusive. A short term bullish trend will be there if the Nifty manages to stay above the 5880 levels in the first few hours of opening trade on Monday. If it stays above 5925 with good volumes fresh buying may emerge leading Nifty to scale new 52 week high. Otherwise the market may drift downwards. 5720 should act as a support.

Nifty for 11.4.11 to 15.4.11

Last week the nifty didn't move at all; it closed where it opened i.e. at 5842. It's movement therefore was inconclusive.Even though the selling pressure is not there, fresh buying too isn't there. The technical parameters suggest a short term bearish mode. However if the market manages to trade above the 5975 levels with good volumes, fresh buying may emerge taking the benchmark index to new 52 week highs.

In the first leg of the quarter finals of the UEFA Champions league
Real Madrid beat Totenham 4-0
Adebayor scored 2 goal in the 4th and 57th minutes, Di María in the 72nd minute and finally Cristiano Ronaldo sealed in the 87th minute. It was a clean sweep.
In the other match it was a complete surprise as FC Schalke blew Internazionale defence 5 to 2.
Schalke scorers:
Matip 17'  Edu 40'   , 75'  Raúl González 53'  Ranocchia 57'
Internazionale scorers:
Stanković 1'
Milito 34'

Fire Power!!

Wembley Stadium will see the eight remaining UEFAChampions League survivors next week in the quarter-final. It is an all-English encounter prominent on the menu. The Wednesday's meeting between Chelsea and Manchester United will bring old rivals back together at Stanf bridge.On wednesday the Real Madrid CF lie in wait which is desperate that Ronaldo recovers from a hamstring injury in time to face the side whose fearless approach took them past AC Milan in the last match. Tuesday also marks the resumption of Internazionale Milano's title defence as they vie to become the first team to reach the European summit in back-to-back campaigns since neighbours Milan in 1989/90. Those two storied clubs meet in a high-stakes Serie A tussle on Saturday, and quarter-final opponents Schalke 04 will look to pounce on any tired Inter legs in the German team's first outing in the competition under new coach Ralf Rangnick. The Bundesliga outfit will nonetheless be wary of hosts desperate to avenge their 1997 UEFA Cup final defeat.Barcelona and Shakhtar Donetsk played each other rather more recently, with Barça lifting the UEFA Super Cup at the Ukrainian champions' expense in 2009. However, Josep Guardiola's men ill not be taking this season's surprise package for granted. They will want to produce another mesmerising display at the Camp Nou on Wednesday, ahead of what is sure to be a tricky return leg at Shakhtar's Donbass Arena the following week.

Nifty for 4th to 8th April 2011.

The continuous winning streak through out the last week was arrested on Friday as market was extremely overbought. However the market closed for the week on a bearish note. The 5700 level will act as a key support, which if breached for two to three sessions on big volumes will result in the end of the bullish trend. Ohterwise the market has clearly turned from a sell on rally to buy on dips. If it manages to cross 5875 levels conclusively in the coming week, a new high for the April series cannot be ruled out.

The next big thing?

 In the annual SXSW Interactive festival held in Austin, Texas the brightest minds in emerging technology  feature five days of compelling presentations along with scores of exciting networking events hosted by industry leaders, the unparalleled SXSW Trade Show and an unbeatable lineup of special programs showcasing the best new digital works, video games and innovative ideas the international community has to offer. This year GroupMe, a “group messaging” service,  won the festival’s Breakout Digital Trend award. It also handled more than 2m messages a day relating to SXSW. Twitter, which is a big hit today, made it's debut in SXSW four years ago. Is GoupMe going to be the next big thing!

Nifty for 28.3.11 to 31.3.11

The Nifty closed near the highest point of the week at 5654 and appears to be in a short term bullish mode. The only dampner is the stochastic which along with the RSI is suggesting an overbought market. However, if after an initial dip down on monday, the Nifty holds the 5550 levels, and breaks the 5700 levels, the march series may expire on a bullish note with fresh buying. Otherwise the Nifty will close the series between 5500 and 5600 levels. However, if the 5475 level is breached, which seems unlikely as of now, then a the downtrend may resume.

Life Goes On- must watch movie.

l
Life Goes On: 
By Subhash K. Jha

Director: Sangeeta Dutta

Cast: Sharmila Tagore, Girish Karnad, Om Puri, Soha Ali Khan, Mukulika Banerjee, 

Neerja Naik, Rez Kempton

Genre: Drama

This is a family drama of a Bengali family living in London. As in most Indian families, the mother is the central figure around whom the whole family revolves. One fine morning the mother of three daughter, played by Sharmila Tagore is dead. The rest of the movie is on bereavement as the survivors go adjusting about life with threads of memories here and there. Sangeeta Dutta's debut movie is a must watch. The cast is excellent. It's clearly a 7 on a scale of 10. 

India-Nifty50.

If Nifty holds 5470 level on closing basis in the next two days then a short term bullish trend cannot be ruled out for the series. The supply it seems has dried out for the moment and it's just the routine profit taking.

Nifty for 7.3.11 to 11.3.11

The markets were in a bullish mode throughout the week ending 4^th March even though it was a truncated week. After touching a high of 5608 on Friday the headline index finally closed at 5538 up 235 points. If the Nifty manages to cross 5670 levels on good volumes, another bout of fresh purchases may be considered. However, 5350 is unlikely to be violated.

Longing!

But there is no another life
The day I'll die, will be the end of me
And I won't be reborn.
This here and now it is
And nothing else
And therefore what good'll a meet do
When we know we'll have to part
And for how long?
And thus the longing.
And I love you so
And I always will
And I miss you
And for all time.

Nifty for 28.2.11 to 4.3.11

If the Nifty manages to stay above 5470 conclusively on big volumes then only one can expect an immediate term bull trend. The market is in a mid term bearish trend and unless it crosses the 5470 mark as specified, all upswings will be used to create fresh shorts. 5000 however is a strong support for the current week.

My choice!! And the Oscar goes to..

My choice is marked in blue and the Nominations are:

BEST PICTURE

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky

Black Swan

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

True Grit

David Fincher

The Social Network

Tom Hooper

The King’s Speech

David O. Russell

The Fighter

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Javier Bardem

Biutiful

Jeff Bridges

True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg

The Social Network

Colin Firth

The King’s Speech

James Franco

127 Hours

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening

The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman

Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence

Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman

Black Swan

Michelle Williams

Blue Valentine

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale

The Fighter

John Hawkes

Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner

The Town

Mark Ruffalo

The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush

The King’s Speech

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams

The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter

The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo

The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld

True Grit

Jacki Weaver

Animal Kingdom

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Another Year

Mike Leigh

Inception

Christopher Nolan

The Fighter

Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson

The Kids Are All Right

Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg

The King’s Speech

David Seidler

Nifty for 22.2.2011

After a fall to levels of 5413 the nifty shot up to 5526 before closing at 5518. The day as envisaged earlier was extremely volatile, but on the closing basis it ended on a strong wicket. The market will be bullish tomorrow if it sustains above the 5500 mark in the early trade. 

Director :  Music :  Starring :

Srikanth V. Velagaleti  Shamir Tandon  Vinay Pathak, Mahie Gill, Sanjay Mishra, Saurabh Shukla and Mona Singh

Released on 4 February 2011, this is yet another thriller involving underworld albeit in light humor. The talented actor Vinay Pathak plays double for the first time. The story with a slow start gathers momentum as it unfolds. The story line is compelling and engages the viewer till the end with lots of twists and turns. Its a must watch not to be missed intriguing movie. On a scale of 1 to 10 it is clearly an 8.

Nifty for 21.2.11 to 24.2.11

After three consecutive weeks of losses in the Nifty the markets finally managed to register gains. All was going well until Friday when after touching an intra-day high high of 5599.25 the nifty gave up all the gains and settled at 5458.95, but still up by 148.95 points on week on week closing basis.

The market next week should start on a week note but if it conclusively crosses the 5470 mark in the early hours and stays above it on good volumes then a retest of the 5636 and 5737 levels cannot be ruled out. Below the 5466 levels markets will only loose ground. The supply however seems to have dried out. So another wave of complete wash out is ruled out for the week. However, the market on Monday can be very volatile. 

The next series starting on 25^th March should however end on a bullish note

The Arab world turmoil.

The turmoil which began in Tunisia, following the death of Mohammed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire on Dec.17 and died on January 3, leading to the expulsion of Tunis dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali spread all over the Arab world resulting in sacking of the Jordan premier and later stepping down of Husni Mubarak in Egypt after three decades in power. Emboldened by the unexpected the protests have now spread to Yemen, Bahrain and Iran and now Libyan city of Benghazi. The control of autocratic rulers over the Arab world is coming to an end and although most of the economies are high growth economies but the bottom line is that the benefits of growth are not trickling down to the masses and growing unemployment was not being addressed by the Autocrats.

movie review- Yeh saali zindagi.

Yeh saali zindagi- review

Yet another 130 minutes gangster movie from Sudhir Mishra who had already shown his talent in 'is raat ki subah naheen' which was based on Mumbai underworld. This time it's a crime infested world of Delhi with brilliant cast of great actors- Irrfan Khan, Arunoday Singh, Chitrangda Singh, Aditi Rao Hyadri, Saurabh Shukla and Sushant Singh. The story has surprise element and cinematography and music make the movie a perfect 8 on a one to ten scale.

EU Summit in Brussels.

Thanks to the opposition by several prime ministers from euro-zone to the proposal of Angela Markel, the German Chancellor and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president to initiate efforts to strengthen the euro in a European Union Summit meeting held in Brussels on Friday. The need of the hour is to take steps to weaken euro and give a last chance to the stressed economies of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

Weekly roundup (28.1.11 to 4.2.11)

The Nifty closed at 5604.3 for the week ending 28Jan 2011. This week it opened weak at 5452.85 and then after trading in a narrow range between 5539.15 and 5402, it finally gave in to supply pressure on Friday the 4th and after seeing an intra day low of 5369.05, as the stop losses got triggered before closing at 5395.75.
The Friday trading was significant because for the first time since May 2010, the entire candle for the day was formed below the 50 week moving average. However there is the silver lining in that the Nifty has filled up all the weekly gaps of the week on week rises of August to September 2010 and retraced 61.8% since May 2010 levels of 4800.
The next two trading days will be significant in that either there will be a final capitulation establishing that Friday's sell off was a false breakout or else a medium term bearish trend will be established with upside capped at the 50 week moving average. For Nifty options traders, Straddle is advised.

Inflationary pressure.

First it was the rise in the prices of commodities like Iron ore, Rubber, cotton and now the news of a closure of Suez. Oil's definitely going to be on a boil. The bankers have a case for interest rate hike, come the Davos summit.

Egyptian growth.

The central point of the current crisis in Egypt is the unemployment factor with a big mass of youth unemployed. There was significant growth though, but the growth was not trickling down. Wealth was amassed in a few hands.

The central point of the current crisis in Egypt is the unemployment factor with a big mass of youth unemployed. There was significant growth though, but the growth was not trickling down. Wealth was amassed in a few hands.

Signals of distress.

There is recession in developed economies with no visible signs of significant growth. The Fed continues with its plan of quantitative easing. US is still limping and staggering and a lot of noise has already started to emerge to tighten the interest rates. In the Euro zone, first it was Greece and then Ireland and now the contagion has spread to Spain and Portugal. Italy is next. All that has been done so far is to bail out the distressed economies with no emphasis whatsoever on restoring growth. The EU decided in December 2010 to postpone the much-needed reforms to beyond 2013 and there are no signs by the ECB to let the Euro weaken. 

And then there is boom in emerging over populated economies and inflation heading north due to drive up in commodity prices. 

Are we, then, heading for yet another crisis!

scent of Tunisia’s “jasmine revolution"

 Mohammed Bouazizi, 26, distraught when police confiscated his unlicensed produce stand, set himself on fire on Dec. 17 and died on Jan. 3. As a sequel to expulsion of Tunis dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali after a 29-day popular uprising against unemployment, and police brutality,  the Husni Mubarak regime of Egypt is under  fire. The rage seems to spread to the whole of the Arab world.

Weekly analysis of Nifty.

The week ending 28 January2011 saw very volatile trade on the Indian bourses with heavy bear hammering. After touching an intra week high of 5802, Nifty slid down to 5459 before finally settling at 5512, in the very last moments of trade on Friday. The Nifty has closed below its 200 DMA for the second consecutive day.
The rally in Nifty which started from September2010, when Nifty was trading around 5350 levels, saw demand of heavyweight index stocks rising continuously from the foreign institutional investors who bought Rs. 250000 crores worth of stocks. But the January meltdown saw a supply of around Rs 7000 crore worth of stock and with Nifty giving up all the gains of the four months.
The MACD is suggesting a fresh downside in the days to come. However a technical pull back cannot be ruled out in the immediate short term but a rise will mostly be used to create fresh shorts.
From a medium term perspective any significant downside can be used to buy metal stocks, especially the iron ore ones.
The support for Nifty is seen at 5250 levels, but a further erosion cannot be ruled out.

Fed to continue buying.

As compared with RBI's credit policy, Fed doesn't consider food and energy prices in its measure of inflation, being more volatile in nature and therefore it was unanimously decided to leave the benchmark short term interest rate unchanged and to continue buying government bonds.

credit policy review of RBI

The RBI has increased repo and reverse repo by 25 bps to 5.5% and 6.5% respectively in its first monetary policy review of 2011 and left the CRR unchanged. Driven by primary food inflation and with a revised 7% inflation, the RBI has been less than hawkish primarily because the current account deficit rules at 3.5% of GDP.  It may however be remembered that the policy rates have already been hiked by about 3% over the last one year period, but in a growing economy further hikes in the policy rates cannot be ruled out.

83rd Oscar nominations

The list of 83rd Oscar nominations for Best Motion Picture of the year is out. The following movies have been nominated. The winners will be announced on 27th February 2011. 

127 Hours

Black Swan

The fighter

Inception

The kids are all right

The King's speech

the social network

Toy Story 3

true grit

winter's bone

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - latest

The American tax payers have spent more than $160 million defending the mortgage finance companies viz. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their former top executives in civil lawsuits accusing them of fraud. It is learnt that the amount of money thus blown up was a secret until last week.

Nifty for 24.1.11

After touching an intra-week low of  5624 Nifty bounced to close the week at 5697. The Nifty managed to hold above its 200 DMA at 5619 which is the only good news in an otherwise dismal week. 14 day RSI as well as MACD suggest that the market is in oversold region and a short term bounce to 5780 levels cannot be ruled out. However, a truncated week will only dampen the sentiments. If the market fails to sustain above the 5755-5765 levels on Monday, building of fresh shorts cannot be ruled out.

Nifty for 24.1.11

After touching an intra-week low of  5624 Nifty bounced to close the week at 5697. The Nifty managed to hold above its 200 DMA at 5619 which is the only good news in an otherwise dismal week. 14 day RSI as well as MACD suggest that the market is in oversold region and a short term bounce to 5780 levels cannot be ruled out. However, a truncated week will only dampen the sentiments. If the market fails to sustain above the 5755-5765 levels on Monday, building of fresh shorts cannot be ruled out.

Nifty till 21.1.2011

The Nifty was subdued for most of the week. Although supply of the first two weeks has declined yet there is no demand. Markets will remain lackluster and the 5750/5800 levels are the most Nifty can make in the current series with no further downside bellow 5500. However, if the current lack of demand persists fresh shorts might be opened in the next series.

Nifty- A double bottom!

After a dismal start, Nifty fell down to 5634.5 and then in late trade surged to 5729.45 before closing at 5711.60. A double bottom has been formed signifying that a short term bottom is in place. A further rise of 40-50 points would confirm that for short term, the pain is over.

Health Care repealed!

 The US president's signature policy suffered a major setback on Wednesday as the house voted 245 to 189 to repeal the Democrats'health care. Has the new Republican majority taken control!

Nifty on 18.1.2011

The supply, it seems, has dried out. The Nifty ended at 5724 up 69 points. The lack of demand was clearly visible. However, further upside of say 60 or 70 points cannot be ruled out. The market may surprise on the upside as much as it did on the last two weeks downside. In case of another supply, and consequent drop in Nifty by 3 or 4 percentage points, heavyweights like L&T, BHEL, ONGC and RIL will become attractive. It is time for bottom fishing in select heavyweights. Start downside averaging Voltas around 195 levels from a mid term perspective.

nifty of 17th Jan2011

After a warm and seemingly promising start and touching a high of  5680 Nifty dropped down to the level of 5625 and remained subdued for the whole day. However there was no severe slide which gave the impression of a silver lining behind the dark. The selling pressure seems to be subsiding as Nifty closed flat at 5654. But the severe slide of the last two weeks has thrown bulls out of the market and due to lack of demand, things are bleak.

Where is Nifty headed?

Come Monday will the Nifty breach its 200DMA!
The speed at which Nifty gave up its recent gains must have thrown even the bear-est of all the bear traders out of the market. Nifty lost 97.35 points or 1.7% on Friday alone as it closed at 5654.55 near the lowest intra-day point in a very highly volatile session. The week saw the Nifty drift full 4%.