Sunday, June 24, 2012


The dollar has become strong and as envisaged in the 17 June post, it broke the 55.80 mark. Now 55.80 is the crucial support above which the dollar will continue to be strong.

S&P CNX Nifty for 25 June2012 to 29 June2012

5120 is the crucial pivot point for the triple witching week. The market may show signs of bullishness if it trades above this point, otherwise it will gravitate towards the immediate support of 5040. 4930 continues to be the point below which all the gains will get reversed and 5301 the crucial resistance.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Intuition is a habit.

Human by default is lazy and tends to be intuitive because being intuitive is easy. Over a period of time intuition becomes second nature and the children do it all the time without realizing the trap. It has been established now that intuition in a field in which one is not trained is flawed and result of intuition in that field is just like the result of flipping an unloaded coin.
One way to get rid of intuition is to realize that this is a habit and one has to train oneself out of this habit. Teachers ought to teach by questioning and then point out the flaws of intuition on every wrong answer.
However if one can train oneself in a particular field or skill by continuous and arduous practice for six hours a day for 6 years, then intuition in that particular field or skill  gets highly developed and yields the best results.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 22 June 2012

As expected, the Nifty is consolidating with an upward bias. The immediate support for today is 5141 and then 5122 and if the market sustains above these levels then the current trend may continue, the resistance being at 5301. However a minor yet sharp sell off can not be ruled out in the first half. 5142 is the crucial pivot point for the day.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 21 June 2012.

Nifty closed yesterday at the today's pivotal point of 5120. However it is safe to assume that the current trend of consolidation with an upward bias will hold as long as it trades above 5083, though below the pivot of 5120 it will exhibit signs of fatigue. 5133 continues to be the immediate resistance and 4930 the immediate support.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Who's bailing out who!!

India, at the G20 summit announced a $10 billion contribution to the IMF’s additional $ 430 billion financial firewall to help the debt-wracked 17-nation euro-zone so that the faltering world economy is protected against the spread of any financial contagion.

The announcement of the contribution was made by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his address at the Plenary Session of the seventh summit of the Group of developed and developing countries(G-20) in Mexico against the backdrop of growing calls to nations to increase contributions to the International Monetary Fund(IMF) for the bailout fund. ........................................First Post.

Oh wow!!!! $ 10 billion coming from a country facing financial crisis!! This was a G 20 summit. Hope the PM knew that he wasn't delivering an electoral promise to the Indian public.

S&P CNX Nifty for 20 June 2012

As long as Nifty manages to stay above 5068, it will continue to consolidate with an upward bias. 4930 continues to be the point of reversal of the immediate trend. 5133 must act as a resistance.

Bailouts are delaying death.

The financial world functions on investor confidence and bailout is not an option; it is more of a patch up for now to keep it going. Convert the Euro-zone into a monetary and fiscal union. The bulk of public debt would be that of a United Federal States of Europe with federal taxing power and balanced budget rules. The only other option is to let the Euro-zone break and be prepared to face a full blown crisis. Delaying the death with bailout will only intensify the impending doom.

Monday, June 18, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 19 June 2012 onwards.

As long as the nifty trades below the crucial mark of 5098, it will continue to be weak, the immediate resistance being 5086. Conclusive trades above 5098 will see fresh intra-day longs. It may find support at 5029 and then 5007. 4930 continues to be the crucial support below which fresh shorts will be built.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Substitute India for Greece.

Ever since the news of Greek failings hit the international media many things you hear about Greece just aren’t true. It does not have as much corruption as has been portrayed in the media and nor is the level of tax evasion as high as is being touted. It is not entirely true that Greek government has had a habit of living beyond its means. The actual culprits are the architects of Euro as a single currency.
However, while going through all the reports in the media about Greece being a runaway welfare state and reports and articles on corruption and tax evasion by Greeks, all of it holds true if you substitute India for Greece and Indians for the Greek. One gets a true picture of India even if one has not visited the nation.

INR- USD ahead.

The dollar will continue to be strong above 56.25 levels above which fresh longs will emerge. It will weaken only if it falls below 54.60 in which case it will find support at 53.45 due to short covering. The deciding point will be volume of trades above or below 55.48. However, chances of dollar breaking out above 55.85 and making new highs cannot be ruled out.

S&PCNX Nifty for the week 18 June 2012 to 22 June 2012.

The immediate support for Nifty is at 5085. If this support holds, then the technicals suggest consolidation with an upward bias to as high as 5310. However, erratic slides and spikes cannot be ruled out this week. But a drop below 4910 will see reversal of the current up trend.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Nifty 15 June 2012

All the technical parameters indicate that for the market to consolidate with an upward bias, it must stay above the 5090 mark with good volume and for major part of the session.5064 is the critical support below which it will turn weak. Above 5107 there can be a spike upwards.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Nifty 14th June 2012.

Nifty closed on 13th June 2012 at just above the critical pivotal point of 5120. Above this point it will be strong and below it will be weak. 5095 is the immediate support and if it slides below 5045, we will see a bearish down spike. However above 5125, one may see further consolidation with an upward bias.

Sunday, June 10, 2012


Rupee will continue to be weak till it trades above 54.60 and below 54.60, it may rally up to 53.45. However, the bearish trend will resume if it trades above 55.85 in the immediate sessions. 

S&PCNX Nifty for the week 11 June 2012 to 15 June 2012.

If the Nifty holds above the 5039 mark then it may be presumed to be in a short term bullish mode. However, it is in an overbought zone as per the stochastic and therefore, it may take a breather around 5138 before commencing the next leg. The immediate resistance is at 5098 which if conquered in opening trades with good volumes might take Nifty to 5301. The immediate support is at 4989. On the flip side, below 4905 Nifty will give up all the gains and resume the bearish trend.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Monday, June 4, 2012

S&PCNX Nifty

The nifty staged a smart recovery yesterday on 4 June 2012. The technical indicators suggest that a short term bottom is in place as long as it holds above the 4800/ 4780 mark. Volume too seems to be near the point of being dried up on the supply side. However the immediate resistance is around 4870 and then 4925.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

S&PCNX Nifty for the week 4 June 2012 to 8 June 2012.

The Nifty broke the critical support level last week and therefore it looks week. Unless the resistance of 4959 is conclusively conquered in the opening first few sessions with good volumes, the market will continue to drift lower. The immediate support is at 4780 and then 4710. Traders may continue to trade short with a stop loss of 4960.