Wednesday, October 31, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 1 November 2012.

The support of 5584 did hold yesterday. The tipping point for today is at 5609. The immediate resistance is at 5622 and 5655.
On the flip side the immediate support is at 5612, 5605 and then at 5596. However, below 5584, the only support is at 5516.
Our outlook for today is of further weakness without further damage to the current trend of consolidation with a bullish bias.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 31 October 2012.

As can be seen from our last posts, the market was looking weak for the last few days and so as if responding to the chart signals, it did come down crashing yesterday. The breach of 5630 levels did bring the benchmark index to as low as 5589.9, which was a shade above the crucial support of 5584.
The tipping point for today's trades is at 5628 and unless the market trades above 5628 conclusively, there are no hopes for the bulls. In case of an upsurge/ bounce back, the immediate resistance is at 5632 and then at 5644.
In case the support of 5584 does not hold conclusively, then the immediate support is at 5516 below which the current bullish trend will reverse.
Our outlook for today is weak consolidation if the 5516 level is not breached.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Baking soda uses.

Do you know that baking soda can be used in the following ways
1- You can brush your teeth with it.
2- Combined with raw honey one tablespoon each, you can use soda as a face wash.
3- A tablespoon of your favorite oil with 4 tablespoon baking soda and you have a perfect deodorant for your arm pits.
4- A paste of baking soda with water can dry out acne.
5- Fill a glass of warm water and mix one tablespoon of baking soda and after wetting them, pour the mixture and comb them well before rinsing. There you have a better than shampoo effect.
6- Stomach related issues like gas, heartburn etc? Mix a tablespoon of baking soda to one glass warm water and drink it. 
7- Dissolve it in your bathing water and you'll have the softening skin and soothing effect

The Archie's music

Hey Archie fans, here's some music for you from Archie Band. The music was recorded in 1969 and some of the numbers remained as number 1 in the billboard hot 100 for almost four weeks. Enjoy with Archiekins and gang.

S&P CNX Nifty for 30 October 2012.

As predicted in our post yesterday, in spite of an opening above Friday's closing, the market did turn weak but the support of 5646 did hold.
The tipping point for today is at 5669 below which the market will continue to be weak. The immediate support is at 5652 below which, 5630 continues to be a major support. A breach of 5630 support will see the index retrace all the way down south to 5584.
If the market trades above 5669 conclusively with good volumes then 5678 is the immediate resistance above which it may find resistance at 5699. Beyond 5699 it will be bullish.
The outlook for today is a weak consolidating lackluster market with a bullish bias.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 29 October 2012.

The tipping point for today is at 5667 which is a shade above the closing point of Friday. The charts indicate somewhat weakness in the immediate term with immediate support at 5658, 5652 and 5646. Below 5646 the crucial support of 5630 may be tested.
On the flip side the immediate resistance is at 5672 and 5690. It will be bullish only above the 5690 mark.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 29 October 2012 to 2 November 2012.

5675 is the deciding point for the whole week, with 5630 as the crucial support. If 5630 gets broken then Nifty may test the 5584 level below which the trend may change if it trades conclusively below 5584. Otherwise the week will pass off in yet another phase of consolidation with a bullish bias with 5736 and 5755 as resistance.

Moonrise Kingdom 2012 review.

Moonrise kingdom is by far the best movie from the writer/director Wes Anderson. Set in the year 1965, it is the story of two twelve year old kids who fall in love and run away into the wilderness in the picturesque and untouched island off the coast of New England. A storm is brewing as the search team comprising the local sheriff played by Bruce Willis and the Khaki scout leader played by Edward Norton set out on a hunt. Among others are Bill Murray and Frances McDormand playing as the girls parents. The movie has been made in a very very warm and immaculate way.
In a rating of 9.5 in a scale of 10, this is a must watch.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Music I Grew Up With - 11

Weekend Verses.

Why Don't You Come

See the swallows quit the eaves
And fall the yellow walnut leaves,
The vines with autumn frost are numb,
Why don't you come, why don't you come?

Oh, come into my arms' embrace
That I may gaze upon your face,
And lay my head in grateful rest
Against your breast, against your breast!

Do you remember when we strayed
The meadows and the secret glade,
I kissed you midst flowering thyme
How many a time, how many a time?

Some women on the earth there are
Whose eyes shine as the evening star,
But be their charm no matter what,
Like you they're not, like you they're not!

For you shine in my soul always
More softly than the starlight blaze,
More splendid than the risen sun,
Beloved one, beloved one!

But it is late in autumn now,
The leaves have fallen from the bough,
The fields are bare, the birds are dumb.
Why don't you come, why don't you come?

         ....Mihai Eminescu ( translation by Corneliu M. Popescu )

Thursday, October 25, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 26 October 2012.

Our predicted support at 5685 did hold on the day of settlement yet the market could not surmount the predicted resistance of 5706 on closing basis as it closed a shade below at 5705.3. 
The charts however indicate a little bit of a drop in the index today due to unwinding of some longs before the Nifty resumes its upward journey.
5698 is the immediate support below the tipping point which happens to be at 5704. Below 5698, the supports continue to be at 5665 and 5630.
On the flip side, if it trades above 5706 in the opening hours with good volumes and for longer time then the immediate resistance is at 5747 and 5762.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 25 October 2012.

As predicted in our last post, the Nifty did find support a shade above 5680. The tipping point continues to be 5697 with immediate support at 5685. Below 5685, it might retrace aal the way till 5665, 5630 continues to be the crucial point.
On the flip side, if it trades above 5697 with good volumes then 5706 will act as the immediate resistance above which 5747 and 5762 will act as intra-day resistances in case of a range bound trading pattern.
Today is the last day of settlement of futures and options of the October series and as per the charts, the series seems to expire without any further significant gain or loss. However, sudden turbulence can not be ruled out and may be employed to hedge future positions for the November series, which will be pretty long as compared to the current series.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Music I Grew Up With -10

Reading skills and white matter correlated.

As per a  recent article published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers have reported a correlation between white matter development in children aged 7-12 and their performance on standardized reading assessments i.e. reading skills.
This can be good news for the educators if this study can shed light on when to start reading interventions, or which cognitive processes the reading interventions should target. But like it happens mostly, such findings result in misinterpretations and get lost or become detrimental. Read more here
In case if the reader does not already know, white matter is one of the two components of the central nervous system  and consists mostly of Glial cells and Myelinated axons. The main effect of white matter is to transmit signals from one region of the Cerebrum to another and between the cerebrum and lower brain centers. In simple words, it is believed that the white matter connects different information, which is contained in grey matter and so the more the white matter the smarter the person. The Grey matter which comprises Neuron is another major component and is believed to store information. 

S&P CNX Nifty for 23 October 2012

The Nifty did show an upsurge yesterday. The tipping point for today is at 5697 below which nifty will be weak with the immediate support at 5680 and then 5665. The crucial support continues to be at 5630.
On the flip side if it trades above 5697, it will surge up north with immediate resistance at 5747 and 5762. The charts are indicating bullishness but settlement being so close, one should be prepared for turbulence.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

And the award goes to..

Hillary Mantel has done it yet again. Following in the close heals of her earlier book, Wolf Hall, which won the award for 2009, this year her book, Bring up the bodies, which is second part of her trilogy on the life and way of Thomas Cromwell, made her win the Man Booker Award for 2012 for a second time. Thomas Cromwell, the chief minister of the Tudor court of Henry VIII, who has severally been portrayed as a ruthless, cruel and negative character in all the earlier fiction, is the central character in both her books. But Hillary Mantel takes a fresh look in both the books from the view point of Cromwell without any prejudice of his much touted violent portrayal. 
For the lovers of fiction, both her books are essentially must reads.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 22 October 2012 to 26 October 2012.

The Nifty closed a shade below the tipping point on Friday the 19th October, the crucial point is at 5686. Above 5686 the immediate resistance is at 5699, 5736 and 5755. On the flip side below 5686 mark the immediate support is at 5665. The crucial support continues to be at 5630 mark below which it may slip to  
5584. The recent consolidation trend will change only if either Nifty dips below 5584 or jumps above 5755. This being a truncated week, as 24 October 2012 is a holiday on account of Dushehra, and also 25 October 2012 is the expiry day of the October series, one may expect choppy trades in either direction. Over all, our out look continues to be of bullish consolidation as long as it stands above 5584 mark and so any dip may be utilized to take positions for the November series.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Weekend Verses

I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings

The free bird leaps
on the back of the wind
and floats downstream
till the current ends
and dips his wings
in the orange sun rays
and dares to claim the sky.

But a bird that stalks
down his narrow cage
can seldom see through
his bars of rage
his wings are clipped and
his feet are tied
so he opens his throat to sing.

The caged bird sings
with fearful trill
of the things unknown
but longed for still
and its tune is heard
on the distant hill 

for the caged bird
sings of freedom

The free bird thinks of another breeze
and the trade winds soft through the sighing trees
and the fat worms waiting on a dawn-bright lawn
and he names the sky his own.

But a caged bird stands on the grave of dreams
his shadow shouts on a nightmare scream
his wings are clipped and his feet are tied
so he opens his throat to sing

The caged bird sings
with a fearful trill
of things unknown
but longed for still
and his tune is heard
on the distant hill
for the caged bird
sings of freedom.

                      ...........................Maya Angelou

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Music I Grew Up With - 9

S&P CNX Nifty for 15 October 2012.

The tipping point for Monday is at 5585 above which the resistance is at 5692 and then at 5700. If Nifty opens below the tipping point then the immediate supports are at 5670, 5631 and then at 5585.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Swerve by Stephen Greenblatt

The book is an excellent masterpiece where Stephan Greenblatt takes the reader to the fifteenth century Europe. It is a vivid description, so lucid in style, of the times and circumstances of papacy and Poggio Bracciolini, the personal secretary of the pope, leading to accidental discovery of the ancient book- De rerum natura- (On the nature of things) the poem written by Lucretius, which was lost for more than a thousand years. Centering around the life and times of Poggio, the book spans across centuries from the Epicurean masters to the renaissance. The emotional need to preserve the beauty of Latin prose and its hexameters by numerous scholars of medieval world, the poem however in conflict with the christian theology of the times, brought about a change in orthodoxy, paving way for The Renaissance.
This is a compelling, exciting and informative book- a must read.

S&P CNX Nifty for the week 15 October 2012 to 19 October 2012.

The Nifty is showing lack of conviction at higher levels, signalling continued consolidation. The critical mark is at 5685 for the next week and the Nifty will remain weak below this levels. If it slips below the support of 5630, then it may find support at 5584. The recent trend of consolidation with bullish bias will change only if it trades below the support of 5584 on closing or continued basis.
On the flip side, if Nifty trades above 5685, then the immediate resistance is at 5708, 5736 and then at 5755. It will be bullish only if it trades above 5755 conclusively.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Weekend Music

This week we have this great song from one of the best classical movies ever made - Fiddler on the roof top. Hear it out guys as you watch the video; you're going to love it.
If I were a rich man...

Weekend Verses.


Come to me in my dreams, and then
By day I shall be well again!
For so the night will more than pay
The hopeless longing of the day.

Come, as thou cam'st a thousand times,
A messenger from radiant climes,
And smile on thy new world, and be
As kind to others as to me!

Or, as thou never cam'st in sooth,
Come now, and let me dream it truth,
And part my hair, and kiss my brow,
And say, My love why sufferest thou?

Come to me in my dreams, and then
By day I shall be well again!
For so the night will more than pay
The hopeless longing of the day.

                     ........... Matthew Arnold

Thursday, October 11, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 12 October 2012.

As envisaged in our post yesterday, the Nifty didn't see any further weakness and bounced from 5636, a mere 6 points above our crucial support of 5630. The resistance of 5721 held the market. The outlook for today is continued consolidation with bullish bias. If it slips below 5689, it might test the support of 5668. If it holds the 5668 support then it might bounce back with immediate resistance at 5728 and then 5749.Otherwise all the profits of yesterday will be wiped out.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 11 October 2012.

Nifty will continue to be weak as long as it trades below 5662. 5630 is the crucial support below which the Nifty will reverse its current trend and may go into a bearish mode in the current series. However chances of further weakness are remote. On the flip side, the immediate resistance is 5687, 5721 and then at 5755. The outlook for the day is of consolidation.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 10 October 2012.

The tipping point for today is 5702. Below 5702 the support is at 5640 where there will be trend reversal. However the outlook for tomorrow is continued consolidation with bullish bias with resistance at 5724, 5742 and 5760.

Monday, October 8, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 9 October 2012

As envisaged in our outlook for 8 October 2012, supply did emerge which dragged Nifty down to 5666.2. The outlook for nifty for 9 October 2012 is of continued supply dragging it further down if it trades bellow 5698 consistently with good volumes, the support is at 5640 below which the trend will reverse and there may be a sudden dip as the stop loss are placed at below 5640 with support at 5573 and 5515.
On the flip side the resistance is at 57555 if it trades above the 5698 mark with good volumes.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 8 October 2012.

If the Nifty trades above the 5759 mark then only will it be bullish with immediate resistance at 5775. However, below the 5759 mark it will be soft with supports at 5734 and 5720.
The outlook for Monday, however, is of continued supply unless it trades above 5759 mark in the initial hours and trades.

To QE or not to QE.

The Central Banks can beat a slump through effective employment of the quantitative theory of money, through quantitative easing with much vigor- by continued purchase of assets from non-banking institutions.
However, that is not what the Fed is doing. Ben Bernanke is actually trying to manipulate the interest rates and this policy is not going to be of any value as the low cost of credit for borrowers is offset by reduced income of creditors (interest).

Saturday, October 6, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 8 October 2012 to 12 October 2012.

If the freak trade of Friday and the consequent shutting down of Nifty is ignored, the Nifty did bounce from 5706.1 which was three points above our predicted support. For the Nifty to continue making new highs, it must trade consistently above 5748 mark. The support is at 5708 and then at 5640. The trend will reverse only if it dips below the 5640 mark.
The outlook for the next week continues to be consolidation with a bullish bias. The resistance is at 5808, 5869 and 5930.

Music I Grew Up With- 8

Friday, October 5, 2012

Weekend Verses.

                A Dream

Love, if I weep it will not matter,
   And if you laugh I shall not care;
Foolish am I to think about it,
   But it is good to feel you there.

Love, in my sleep I dreamed of waking,—
   White and awful the moonlight reached
Over the floor, and somewhere, somewhere,
   There was a shutter loose,—it screeched!

Swung in the wind,—and no wind blowing!—
   I was afraid, and turned to you,
Put out my hand to you for comfort,—
   And you were gone! Cold, cold as dew,

Under my hand the moonlight lay!
   Love, if you laugh I shall not care,
But if I weep it will not matter,—
   Ah, it is good to feel you there!

                                Edna St. Vincent Millay.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 5 October 2012

The Nifty was bullish as predicted yesterday. The tipping point for today is at 5780 above which Nifty will be bullish with immediate resistance at 5798, 5838 and then 5865.
On the flip side, in case the nifty trades below the 5780 mark for longer period with good volumes, the support is at 5765, 5745 and 5703 but the sentiment will be of consolidation with bullish bias. The sentiment will change only if it dips below 5703 which seems less likely at this stage. All the technical indicators are in bullish pattern.

Money Matters -III

Marshall Auerback talks public!!  Smart?  watch

The text of Daniel Kahneman's recent e mail.

From: Daniel Kahneman Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2012 9:32 AM Subject: A proposal to deal with questions about priming effects
Dear colleagues,
I write this letter to a collection of people who were described to me (mostly by John Bargh) as students of social priming. There were names on the list that I could not match to an email. Please pass it on to anyone else you think might be relevant.
As all of you know, of course, questions have been raised about the robustness of priming results. The storm of doubts is fed by several sources, including the recent exposure of fraudulent researchers, general concerns with replicability that affect many disciplines, multiple reported failures to replicate salient results in the priming literature, and the growing belief in the existence of a pervasive file drawer problem that undermines two methodological pillars of your field: the preference for conceptual over literal replication and the use of meta-analysis. Objective observers will point out that the problem could well be more severe in your field than in other branches of experimental psychology, because every priming study involves the invention of a new experimental situation.
For all these reasons, right or wrong, your field is now the poster child for doubts about the integrity of psychological research. Your problem is not with the few people who have actively challenged the validity of some priming results. It is with the much larger population of colleagues who in the past accepted your surprising results as facts when they were published. These people have now attached a question mark to the field, and it is your responsibility to remove it.
I am not a member of your community, and all I have personally at stake is that I recently wrote a book that emphasizes priming research as a new approach to the study of associative memory – the core of what dual-system theorists call System 1. Count me as a general believer. I also believe in a point that John Bargh made in his response to Cleeremans, that priming effects are subtle and that their design requires high-level skills. I am skeptical about replications by investigators new to priming research, who may not be attuned to the subtlety of the conditions under which priming effects are observed, or to the ease with which these effects can be undermined.
My reason for writing this letter is that I see a train wreck looming. I expect the first victims to be young people on the job market. Being associated with a controversial and suspicious field will put them at a severe disadvantage in the competition for positions. Because of the high visibility of the issue, you may already expect the coming crop of graduates to encounter problems. Another reason for writing is that I am old enough to remember two fields that went into a prolonged eclipse after similar outsider attacks on the replicability of findings: subliminal perception and dissonance reduction.
I believe that you should collectively do something about this mess. To deal effectively with the doubts you should acknowledge their existence and confront them straight on, because a posture of defiant denial is self-defeating. Specifically, I believe that you should have an association, with a board that might include prominent social psychologists from other field. The first mission of the board would be to organize an effort to examine the replicability of priming results, following a protocol that avoids the questions that have been raised and guarantees credibility among colleagues outside the field.
The following is just an example of such a protocol:
 Assemble a group of five labs, where the leading investigators have an established reputation (tenure should perhaps be a requirement). Substantial labs with several students are the most desirable participants.
 Each lab selects a recent demonstration of a priming effect, which they consider robust and most likely to replicate.
 The board makes a public commitment to these five specific effects
 Set up a daisy chain of labs A-B-C-D-E-A, where each lab will replicate the study selected by its
neighbor: B replicates A, C replicates B etc.
 Have the replicating lab send someone to see how subjects are run (hence the emphasis on recency –
the experiments should be in the active repertoire of the original lab, so that additional subjects can
be run with confidence that the same procedure is followed).
 Have the replicated lab send someone to vet the procedure of the replicating lab as it starts its work
 Run enough subjects to guarantee power (probably more than in the original study)
 Use technology (e.g. video) to ensure that every detail of the method is documented and can be
copied by others.
 Pre-commit to publish the results, letting the chips fall where they may, and make all data available
for analysis by others.
This is something you could do quickly, and relatively cheaply. The main costs are 10 trips, and funds to cover
these costs would be easy to get (I have checked). You would have to be careful in selecting laboratories and
results to maximize credibility, and every step of the procedure should be open and documented. The
unusually high openness to scrutiny may be annoying and even offensive, but it is a small price to pay for the
big prize of restored credibility.
Success (say, replication of four of the five positive priming results) would immediately rehabilitate the field.
Importantly, success would also provide an effective challenge to the adequacy of outsiders’ replications. A
publicly announced and open effort would be credible among colleagues at large, because it would show that
you are sufficiently confident in your results to take a risk.
More ambiguous results would be painful, of course, but they would still protect the reputations of scholars
who sincerely believe in their work – even if they are sometimes wrong.
The protocol I outlined is just an example of something you might do. The main point of my letter is that you
should do something, and that you must do it collectively. No single individual will be able to overcome the
doubts, but if you act as a group and avoid defensiveness you will be credible.
All best,

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

S&P CNX Nifty for 4 October 2012

For the bullish trend to continue the Nifty will have to stay consistently above the 5733 mark below which it might retrace its path to 5675. The technical charts are indicating continued bullishness though, with immediate resistance at 5744 and then at 5758 and 5774.

Money Matters - II

Hear out Stiglitz, Greenspan and Buffett on US Default.  Watch this video.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

USD- INR ahead.

The dollar has weakened against rupee and will continue to weaken further if it trades below 52.21, below which the support is at 51.90 and then 50.65. The immediate resistance is at 52.47 and 52.57.  The recent weak trend of dollar will reverse only above 52.73. In the immediate term, a trend reversal does not seem likely and based on the technical charts, it seems more likely that the dollar may weaken further with trades mostly on short side.

S&P CNX Nifty for 3 October 2012

The market will continue to be strong as long as it trades above the 5712 mark, in which case the resistance is at 5661. However below 5712, the immediate support is at 5675.

September 2012- A Historical Month?

Going by the available data, the US economy still seems to be hardly tattering on its way towards recovery. With employment stuck above 8% and the growth sinking deep below 2%, the only spot where any activity was witnessed recently was in the Wall Street.
The great moment in modern monetary history, the greatest since the Wall Street blues of September 2008 was created during September 2012. On 13th September, Ben Bernanke promised to buy as much bonds as necessary without limit, till the US approaches the level of full employment. A week later, Angela Markel affirms her support to the European Central Bank to purchase as much of sovereign debt as necessary to prevent the fears of a Euro-union break up. Bank of Japan too extended its asset purchasing programme. All the three Central Banks have, in other words, consented to printing currency without limits this time.
Similar quantitative easing has been conducted by the US Fed in the past, but not much has come out of it.
Throwing inflation targets to wind, putting lots of money with the banks, only time will tell whether it will boost the economies like it did in the pre-1970 era. 
But one thing which is clearly visible is the increase in stock and bond prices. Is the new printed money being re-distributed in the hands of the Wall Street participants! Is the new money parked with banks responsible for inflating the asset prices or is it really moving the economies out of the shambles they have been in of late! Or will it indeed help in reducing the long term mortgage rates.
I doubt.