scent of Tunisia’s “jasmine revolution"

 Mohammed Bouazizi, 26, distraught when police confiscated his unlicensed produce stand, set himself on fire on Dec. 17 and died on Jan. 3. As a sequel to expulsion of Tunis dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali after a 29-day popular uprising against unemployment, and police brutality,  the Husni Mubarak regime of Egypt is under  fire. The rage seems to spread to the whole of the Arab world.

Weekly analysis of Nifty.

The week ending 28 January2011 saw very volatile trade on the Indian bourses with heavy bear hammering. After touching an intra week high of 5802, Nifty slid down to 5459 before finally settling at 5512, in the very last moments of trade on Friday. The Nifty has closed below its 200 DMA for the second consecutive day.
The rally in Nifty which started from September2010, when Nifty was trading around 5350 levels, saw demand of heavyweight index stocks rising continuously from the foreign institutional investors who bought Rs. 250000 crores worth of stocks. But the January meltdown saw a supply of around Rs 7000 crore worth of stock and with Nifty giving up all the gains of the four months.
The MACD is suggesting a fresh downside in the days to come. However a technical pull back cannot be ruled out in the immediate short term but a rise will mostly be used to create fresh shorts.
From a medium term perspective any significant downside can be used to buy metal stocks, especially the iron ore ones.
The support for Nifty is seen at 5250 levels, but a further erosion cannot be ruled out.

Fed to continue buying.

As compared with RBI's credit policy, Fed doesn't consider food and energy prices in its measure of inflation, being more volatile in nature and therefore it was unanimously decided to leave the benchmark short term interest rate unchanged and to continue buying government bonds.

credit policy review of RBI

The RBI has increased repo and reverse repo by 25 bps to 5.5% and 6.5% respectively in its first monetary policy review of 2011 and left the CRR unchanged. Driven by primary food inflation and with a revised 7% inflation, the RBI has been less than hawkish primarily because the current account deficit rules at 3.5% of GDP.  It may however be remembered that the policy rates have already been hiked by about 3% over the last one year period, but in a growing economy further hikes in the policy rates cannot be ruled out.

83rd Oscar nominations

The list of 83rd Oscar nominations for Best Motion Picture of the year is out. The following movies have been nominated. The winners will be announced on 27th February 2011. 

127 Hours

Black Swan

The fighter

Inception

The kids are all right

The King's speech

the social network

Toy Story 3

true grit

winter's bone

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - latest

The American tax payers have spent more than $160 million defending the mortgage finance companies viz. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their former top executives in civil lawsuits accusing them of fraud. It is learnt that the amount of money thus blown up was a secret until last week.

Nifty for 24.1.11

After touching an intra-week low of  5624 Nifty bounced to close the week at 5697. The Nifty managed to hold above its 200 DMA at 5619 which is the only good news in an otherwise dismal week. 14 day RSI as well as MACD suggest that the market is in oversold region and a short term bounce to 5780 levels cannot be ruled out. However, a truncated week will only dampen the sentiments. If the market fails to sustain above the 5755-5765 levels on Monday, building of fresh shorts cannot be ruled out.

Nifty for 24.1.11

After touching an intra-week low of  5624 Nifty bounced to close the week at 5697. The Nifty managed to hold above its 200 DMA at 5619 which is the only good news in an otherwise dismal week. 14 day RSI as well as MACD suggest that the market is in oversold region and a short term bounce to 5780 levels cannot be ruled out. However, a truncated week will only dampen the sentiments. If the market fails to sustain above the 5755-5765 levels on Monday, building of fresh shorts cannot be ruled out.

Nifty till 21.1.2011

The Nifty was subdued for most of the week. Although supply of the first two weeks has declined yet there is no demand. Markets will remain lackluster and the 5750/5800 levels are the most Nifty can make in the current series with no further downside bellow 5500. However, if the current lack of demand persists fresh shorts might be opened in the next series.

Nifty- A double bottom!

After a dismal start, Nifty fell down to 5634.5 and then in late trade surged to 5729.45 before closing at 5711.60. A double bottom has been formed signifying that a short term bottom is in place. A further rise of 40-50 points would confirm that for short term, the pain is over.

Health Care repealed!

 The US president's signature policy suffered a major setback on Wednesday as the house voted 245 to 189 to repeal the Democrats'health care. Has the new Republican majority taken control!

Nifty on 18.1.2011

The supply, it seems, has dried out. The Nifty ended at 5724 up 69 points. The lack of demand was clearly visible. However, further upside of say 60 or 70 points cannot be ruled out. The market may surprise on the upside as much as it did on the last two weeks downside. In case of another supply, and consequent drop in Nifty by 3 or 4 percentage points, heavyweights like L&T, BHEL, ONGC and RIL will become attractive. It is time for bottom fishing in select heavyweights. Start downside averaging Voltas around 195 levels from a mid term perspective.

nifty of 17th Jan2011

After a warm and seemingly promising start and touching a high of  5680 Nifty dropped down to the level of 5625 and remained subdued for the whole day. However there was no severe slide which gave the impression of a silver lining behind the dark. The selling pressure seems to be subsiding as Nifty closed flat at 5654. But the severe slide of the last two weeks has thrown bulls out of the market and due to lack of demand, things are bleak.

Where is Nifty headed?

Come Monday will the Nifty breach its 200DMA!
The speed at which Nifty gave up its recent gains must have thrown even the bear-est of all the bear traders out of the market. Nifty lost 97.35 points or 1.7% on Friday alone as it closed at 5654.55 near the lowest intra-day point in a very highly volatile session. The week saw the Nifty drift full 4%.